Anti-virus packages: Demand Ramps Up

Viruses have moved from being a small nuisance to a serious security threat

in the recent past. The issue is no longer limited to individual desktops, but

to networked environment. Given this situation, security has become critical and

anti-virus vendors can look for faster growth.

The concern for security is at the top of the mind of every user who logs on

to the Net to do business. Considering the hybrid nature of virus threats today,

the awareness is on a gradual ascent in the country. While there hasn’t been

an independent study conducted in India, IDC estimates that in year 2000, the

worldwide revenue for anti-virus software reached $1.4 billion, representing a

25 percent growth over 1999 revenue. This market is projected to increase at a

15 percent CAGR and reach $2.8 billion by 2005.

Globally, IDC estimates the security market to reach around 17 billion USD by

2005 with individual categories (like anti-virus, firewalls, vulnerability

management and intrusion detection) to grow at a CAGR between 15 to 27 percent.

IDC also says that Asia-Pacific will be the fastest-growing region in the

world for anti-virus software products experiencing a CAGR of 32 percent from

2000 to 2005. This will account for 26 percent of the worldwide anti-virus

market in 2005.

Growth potential



The internet security market in India is yet to be completely tapped. As per

consulting firm KPMG, more than 70 percent of India corporates still do not have

a well-defined security policy. The security market in India is still very much

in its nascent stages.

Organizations are only slowly beginning to understand the need to have a

security solution that addresses all areas of its defense against malicious

attacks from both outside and within.

"Most Indian organizations are still in a reactive mode when its comes

to e-security. So far they have only addressed the first part, which is building

up their perimeter defense. This is the reason why perimeter security solutions

like anti-virus and firewalls still occupy top of mind recall as far as security

is concerned. Also they make up the majority of the security market share,"

says Vaidyanathan Iyer, National Manager, eSecurity Solutions, Computer

Associates India.

"We have seen a very steady growth in the market for anti-virus

solutions notwithstanding the present gloomy environment. The recent virus

attacks which have caused huge damages have surely woken up the powers that be

in organizations across the world and India is no exception," he adds.

Internet-fueled threats



Using Internet technologies to conduct business and share information over

both third-party and public Internet infrastructures, renders a company’s

entire network vulnerable to a number of external attacks.

In a brief moment, private consumer information, product pricing information

and strategic marketing plans can be stolen or destroyed. Messaging systems also

provide a vehicle for spreading viruses that may go undetected for days or

weeks.

"Thus solutions that are directed at ‘defense against Internet threats’

will have a tremendous market potential anywhere and especially in a country

like India. Here the enterprises are slowly accepting the concept of e-business

as a part of life now and hence looking at the first level of Internet

security," says Vaidyanathan.

The demand drivers for the anti-virus market have changed in conjunction with

the Internet and the introduction of broadband. "The probability of virus

infection sharply rises in the broadband environment," says Ajit Pillai,

Channel Manager, Overseas Business Unit, Trend Micro.

"An always-on environment provides more opportunity for viruses to enter

users systems. This is because users’ IP addresses become static, providing

hackers with a stationary target when users are connected to the Internet

continuously. PCs are open for attack at any time from threats such as back-door

password stealing Trojans," he adds.

Without adequate precautionary measures, consumers and corporates will be the

targets of new viruses. It is not always possible to be updated with the latest

anti-virus files. Hence security measures and support services at the service

provider level are crucial.

Joy Gosh, Country Manager, Symantec says, "The Indian security market is

maturing quickly and high-risk organizations are no longer tucking away security

budgets inside IT budgets. We see growth drivers like increasing security

threats getting more damaging and complex. The rise of the ‘blended threat’

like the Code Red and Nimda are some of the recent examples of a constant

presence of vulnerabilities."

According to IDC, the Internet gateway is the highest growth segment of the

anti-virus market, with a projected CAGR of 43 percent from 1999 to 2004. IDC

also projects that this growth will raise this segment’s (Internet gateway)

share of the overall market from an estimated 24 percent in 1999 to a projected

41 percent in 2004.

Future outlook



From the security market point of view, one of the key things that is going

to happen is that organizations are going to invest in integrated security

solutions and not just piecemeal ones that take care of only perimeter level

security.

All security product vendors can expect the security market in India to grow

substantially in the next two year as organizations are expected to spend on

building up their IT infrastructure. Evidently, anti-virus as an essential part

of security solutions is going to be a key component of this spend.

NELSON JOHNY in Mumbai with inputs from MOHIT CHHABRA in New Delhi