Advertisment

Asia Pacific will lead global IT recovery: Gartner

author-image
DQC Bureau
New Update

In a series of regional forecasts focusing on the "hottest" topics

looking forward in 2003, Gartner predicted that Asia Pacific would lead a modest

global IT recovery this year which will become more pronounced in 2004 while

China will overtake the US to become the world’s largest fixed line telecom

market this year.

Advertisment

In a media briefing recently, Dion Wiggins outlined Gartner’s key IT trends

and scenarios for Asia Pacific in 2003. He explained that Asia Pacific

(excluding Japan) will lead a modest global IT recovery this year with sales of

IT and communications products and services growing from 5.8 percent in 2002 to

10 percent this year. Japan will grow by four per cent in 2003.

"Users and vendors alike must wait until 2004 for a more pronounced

global IT recovery," he says. "One mitigating factor could be a war in

Iraq. If it happens, consumer confidence in the US will plummet and oil prices

will rise. The tenuous global economic situation will worsen, prolonging any

hope of short-term IT investment recovery."

Dion warned that people should prepare for disillusionment with the Chinese

market as enterprises experiment and fail. He says, "Much of the hype is

not realistic in the short-term. Many foreign enterprises entering China for the

first time are still expecting quick returns but they will be

disappointed." He feels that China is a significant market and companies

that penetrate it properly will prosper.

Advertisment

On the positive side Gartner believes major vendors will continue to announce

R&D centers in China and Chinese brands will begin to emerge on to the

global stage as companies gain a better understanding of the global marketplace.

Gartner also expects local IT suppliers from within the Asia Pacific region

to gain marketshare at the expense of existing IT MNCs. This includes the tier

one Indian service providers such as TCS, Infosys and Wipro, emerging Chinese

hardware manufacturers including Legend, Huawei and ZTE and niche software

companies from across the region.

In the telecom sector, China will overtake the US to become the world’s

largest fixed line telecom market in 2003 with the number of subscribers

reaching 255 million and growing to 341 million by 2006. China’s mobile

market, already the largest in the world, will grow to 258 million subscribers

this year and will continue to grow to 385 million by 2006.

Combined PC desktop and notebook shipments in Asia Pacific will grow 11

percent to 23.4 million units this year compared with 21.2 million in 2002,

whilst the Indian domestic market will be the world’s fastest growing Internet

and communication technologies market surpassing even China.

DQCI NEWS BUREAU

Advertisment