In a series of regional forecasts focusing on the "hottest" topics
looking forward in 2003, Gartner predicted that Asia Pacific would lead a modest
global IT recovery this year which will become more pronounced in 2004 while
China will overtake the US to become the world’s largest fixed line telecom
market this year.
In a media briefing recently, Dion Wiggins outlined Gartner’s key IT trends
and scenarios for Asia Pacific in 2003. He explained that Asia Pacific
(excluding Japan) will lead a modest global IT recovery this year with sales of
IT and communications products and services growing from 5.8 percent in 2002 to
10 percent this year. Japan will grow by four per cent in 2003.
"Users and vendors alike must wait until 2004 for a more pronounced
global IT recovery," he says. "One mitigating factor could be a war in
Iraq. If it happens, consumer confidence in the US will plummet and oil prices
will rise. The tenuous global economic situation will worsen, prolonging any
hope of short-term IT investment recovery."
Dion warned that people should prepare for disillusionment with the Chinese
market as enterprises experiment and fail. He says, "Much of the hype is
not realistic in the short-term. Many foreign enterprises entering China for the
first time are still expecting quick returns but they will be
disappointed." He feels that China is a significant market and companies
that penetrate it properly will prosper.
On the positive side Gartner believes major vendors will continue to announce
R&D centers in China and Chinese brands will begin to emerge on to the
global stage as companies gain a better understanding of the global marketplace.
Gartner also expects local IT suppliers from within the Asia Pacific region
to gain marketshare at the expense of existing IT MNCs. This includes the tier
one Indian service providers such as TCS, Infosys and Wipro, emerging Chinese
hardware manufacturers including Legend, Huawei and ZTE and niche software
companies from across the region.
In the telecom sector, China will overtake the US to become the world’s
largest fixed line telecom market in 2003 with the number of subscribers
reaching 255 million and growing to 341 million by 2006. China’s mobile
market, already the largest in the world, will grow to 258 million subscribers
this year and will continue to grow to 385 million by 2006.
Combined PC desktop and notebook shipments in Asia Pacific will grow 11
percent to 23.4 million units this year compared with 21.2 million in 2002,
whilst the Indian domestic market will be the world’s fastest growing Internet
and communication technologies market surpassing even China.
DQCI NEWS BUREAU