US PC shipments fall again in Q3 2025 — Consumer demand tells a different story

The US PC market recorded its second consecutive quarterly decline in Q3 2025, with shipments (excluding tablets) falling 1% year-on-year to 17.7 million units, according to the latest research from Omdia. The slowdown reflects mounting macroeconomic pressures, particularly in public-sector spending, even as consumer demand remained unexpectedly resilient.

Consumer PCs Buck the Broader Trend

Despite inflation, tariffs and weakening sentiment, the consumer segment emerged as the strongest performer in the quarter. Consumer PC shipments rose 8% year-on-year to 7.6 million units, marking the third straight quarter of growth in 2025.

Greg Davis, Analyst at Omdia, described the consumer market as a relative bright spot but cautioned against over-optimism. “Q3 delivered the strongest performance so far, with consumer shipments rising 8% year-on-year. However, recent reports show a sharp deterioration in US consumer sentiment,” he said. Davis pointed to persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, rising unemployment, and growing household debt as factors likely to weigh on demand heading into the holiday quarter.

Public Sector Pullback Deepens

While the commercial segment remained broadly stable, with shipments declining by just under 1%, the education and government segments saw a much sharper contraction. Combined shipments to these sectors fell 23% year-on-year in Q3.

“The education and government segments have both moved into a pattern of continual decline after a strong start to the year in Q1,” Davis said. He attributed the downturn to reduced government funding, record layoffs across public institutions, and the unwinding of excess inventory built earlier in the year to cushion the impact of tariffs.

An Omdia quick poll of commercial channel partners suggests inventory levels are now expected to fall across all regions in Q4 2025, potentially easing shipment pressures.

Windows 11 Transition Could Support Recovery

As elevated inventories clear, Omdia expects the pace of decline to moderate, particularly in the commercial segment. Davis noted that the ongoing transition from Windows 10 to Windows 11 could provide a timely demand catalyst for enterprise refresh cycles, helping commercial shipments return to growth in Q4.

Looking ahead, Omdia forecasts that the consumer segment will contract year-on-year in Q4 2025, reflecting worsening economic conditions. Even so, the research firm maintains a positive full-year outlook.

“2025 as a whole is still projected to be a growth year for the US PC market,” Davis concluded, “and we expect it to finish the year in a stronger position than in the previous two quarters.”

Despite near-term volatility, the data suggests the US PC market is adjusting rather than stalling, balancing weaker institutional demand against consumer resilience and an impending commercial upgrade cycle.

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